The report, Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers 2004, predicts that "2004 will be critical for the suppliers, with well over 40 companies clamoring for orders spread among a dizzying number of new and existing segments, and surprisingly little consolidation in the hodge-podge of companies so far".
Reviewing the markets, technology and suppliers of these lasers and transceivers, the report presents forecasts by application and type, including unit sales and price projections. It also estimates the revenues and market shares of key suppliers. Other findings include:
• Lead times are extending for the first time in several years, after the market fell by 80% from its peak to nearly $500 m in 2003. It will recover in 2004 and grow at a compound annual rate of 24% by 2008. This recovery will be boosted by the growing use of optical links in local- and storage-area networks spilling over to create new demand for long-wavelength transceivers in campus and, to a lesser extent, metro networks.
• Promising opportunities include emerging form factors and new approaches to carrying 10 Gbit/s traffic over legacy multimode fiber. These latter developments will drive the use of long-wavelength transceivers where short-wavelength transceivers were traditionally used.
• Agilent and Finisar, both suppliers associated with enterprise network products, led sales in 2003. Such datacom transceiver suppliers are pushing toward higher-end products, while some traditionally high-end telecom suppliers are seeking to capture sales to enterprise equipment makers.
• In all, dozens of companies are competing over a changing array of segments. Because every supplier has cut back severely, no company can feel secure about its ability to recover, or in the case of start-ups, just to make it to first base.
"The saying that 'past performance is no indication of future behavior' is especially apt in this market," said Tom Hausken, Strategies Unlimited's director of communication component research. "It is impossible to predict who will eventually emerge as the new market leaders, but a change in the line-up is certain, and we are seeing some of that already."
For more information, contact Strategies Unlimited on +1 650 941 3438 or +1 650 941 5120 (fax). E-mail: info@strategies-u.com.
In a separate report, US telecom consultancy ElectroniCast Corporation has analyzed the market for external optical signal modulators. According to ElectroniCast, optical communications modulators used with transmitters at rates of 10 Gbit/s held the largest relative market share value at 65.2% ($119 m) in 2003.
Modulators used in 40 Gbit/s links began to show small but measurable quantities in 2003, as chromatic and polarization-mode dispersion problems were addressed. By 2008, says the market study, 40 Gbit/s modulator use will represent about 15.5% of the relative global market share consumption value.
"Because of the huge difference in average selling prices, the market share data differs dramatically based on unit volume," said ElectroniCast president Stephen Montgomery. "By 2008, optical modulator use at 40 Gbit/s will account for just over 6% of the total worldwide volume." In 2003, electro-optical modulators, typically based on lithium niobate, represented 64% of global consumption. Electroabsorption modulators, the other type of external modulators used extensively today, will increase its relative market share to over 40% by 2008.
The optical communication component global market forecast service External Optical Signal Modulators is available for a fee of $12,000. An executive summary service is available for $2995. For marketing and sales information, please contact Theresa Hosking at thosking@electronicast.com.